[h=1]Top 10 impact fantasy rookies[/h][h=3]Which rookies are in spots to provide the most fantasy value this season?[/h]By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider
We might never see another rookie class that has as much early success as 2012's crop --that's how good Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris & Co. were. And as we looked at the NFL draft class after Round 1 back in April, I think most fans were feeling extremely underwhelmed by the potential fantasy prospects.
Consider:
• We didn't have a single position player drafted until No. 8 overall, and the Rams moved up to get Tavon Austin with that pick.
• There were no QBs taken in the top 10, and EJ Manuel isn't a lock to start after being the first QB taken at No. 15 overall.
• There were exactly zero running backs taken in Round 1.
But there will be some breakout first-year guys in 2013. It's simply inevitable. And while I'm not on par with other fantasy experts around these parts, here's my list of the top 10 fantasy impact rookies for this year.
As a note, a similar list exists in print, within the ESPN Fantasy Football 2013 guide. But I've shifted one player here as we get closer to the season.
1. Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers
I had him as my top RB in the draft, but toe injury concerns caused him to drop to the end of the second round. Despite concerns about his heft as he heads into the season, Lacy has all the skills you need, and he's going to a great offense. Even if fellow draftee Johnathan Franklin steals some carries, I bet Lacy is the goal-line guy from Week 1. A last bit on both Lacy and Franklin: I think the injury to Bryan Bulaga actually emphasizes the need for Green Bay to do more on the ground and keep some heat off Aaron Rodgers via the threat of the run, not just through good protection.
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2. Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos
Don't be surprised if Ball ends August as the No. 1 back in Denver. Why? Three reasons: He is more explosive than Knowshon Moreno; Ball is a better pass-blocker than third-down back Ronnie Hillman; and he's got enough experience to absorb the knowledge Peyton Manning will require of him between now and the start of the season. I'm not worried about what the depth chart says now -- Ball is going to get his carries.
3. Le'Veon Bell, RB Pittsburgh Steelers
I didn't love that the Steelers took him in the second round -- that was a bit of a reach for me. But I will say that he was very productive last year at Michigan State despite some awful blocking. He has a big opportunity in Pittsburgh because if that line is healthy, I think Bell is the more explosive option in a backfield that also features Jonathan Dwyer. Like Lacy, Bell is also going to become a go-to-guy for short-yardage situations because of his style, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pile up touchdowns on short-yardage carries.
4. Tavon Austin, WR, St. Louis Rams
St. Louis wouldn't have traded up to No. 8 if Austin wasn't going to be used. And the best bet is that Austin slides right into Danny Amendola's vacated slot spot. On the day of the draft, I picked him as my way-too-early Offensive Player of the Year for 2013, and I'll stick with that because I think he can make a unique impact on an offense compared to other players in this draft class.
5. Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati adds an offensive dimension it hasn't had in years -- a pass-catching threat out of the backfield. Bernard was the most versatile RB in the draft, which makes him a perfect fit for a Cincy offense that didn't just want a guy with more explosiveness through the hole, but also a screen and dump-off threat for Andy Dalton, who, while an improved deep passer, will need to maximize underneath stuff to reach his full potential.
6. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
The Texans have been looking for a legit No. 2 WR to take some heat off Andre Johnson for a while, and I think Hopkins fits the bill. The Texans' ability to run the ball and their effectiveness out of play-action should take advantage of Hopkins' ability to create space and stretch the field.
7. Johnathan Franklin, RB, Green Bay Packers
This is a pick more related to opportunity than pure ability. Franklin is a solid, productive back who will deliver if he gets the carries. If Lacy doesn't get the nod as the starter, then Franklin automatically assumes a great deal of value. If there was a running back combination where you could draft one and stash the other, this might be it.
8. Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
There are going to be lots of teams kicking themselves for not grabbing Eifert. I know the Bengals already have Jermaine Gresham, but he has not done the job on intermediate throws. Eifert is the perfect player to fill that void and I can tell you the coaching staff thought the world of him before they drafted him. Look around the league and you've seen that a team consistently playing with two tight ends or living in Ace personnel (2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB) doesn't mean both will be diminished. It can mean just the opposite. Because Eifert is every bit the matchup problem other top tight ends are, I like his chances, and he should be great in the red zone.
9. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The big question with Patterson is whether he can get enough targets. The Vikings offense has failed to produce big fantasy totals out of the wide receiver position -- Percy Harvin is great, but he never eclipsed 1,000 yards or six touchdowns as a wide receiver -- and that starts with their quarterback more than a devotion to Adrian Peterson. But Patterson is great with the ball in his hands, so I don't think the Vikings need to overthink it when it comes to finding ways to get him the ball.
10. Robert Woods, WR, Buffalo Bills
With great hands, solid route-running skills and veteran savvy, Woods is going to surprise people this season. Stevie Johnson is productive but lacks breakaway speed, so don't be shocked if Woods quickly becomes a bigger part of the Bills offense. That said, I don't think you can draft Woods in anything other than a real deep league if Manuel wins the starting job.
We might never see another rookie class that has as much early success as 2012's crop --that's how good Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris & Co. were. And as we looked at the NFL draft class after Round 1 back in April, I think most fans were feeling extremely underwhelmed by the potential fantasy prospects.
Consider:
• We didn't have a single position player drafted until No. 8 overall, and the Rams moved up to get Tavon Austin with that pick.
• There were no QBs taken in the top 10, and EJ Manuel isn't a lock to start after being the first QB taken at No. 15 overall.
• There were exactly zero running backs taken in Round 1.
But there will be some breakout first-year guys in 2013. It's simply inevitable. And while I'm not on par with other fantasy experts around these parts, here's my list of the top 10 fantasy impact rookies for this year.
As a note, a similar list exists in print, within the ESPN Fantasy Football 2013 guide. But I've shifted one player here as we get closer to the season.
1. Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers
I had him as my top RB in the draft, but toe injury concerns caused him to drop to the end of the second round. Despite concerns about his heft as he heads into the season, Lacy has all the skills you need, and he's going to a great offense. Even if fellow draftee Johnathan Franklin steals some carries, I bet Lacy is the goal-line guy from Week 1. A last bit on both Lacy and Franklin: I think the injury to Bryan Bulaga actually emphasizes the need for Green Bay to do more on the ground and keep some heat off Aaron Rodgers via the threat of the run, not just through good protection.
<OFFER>
2. Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos
Don't be surprised if Ball ends August as the No. 1 back in Denver. Why? Three reasons: He is more explosive than Knowshon Moreno; Ball is a better pass-blocker than third-down back Ronnie Hillman; and he's got enough experience to absorb the knowledge Peyton Manning will require of him between now and the start of the season. I'm not worried about what the depth chart says now -- Ball is going to get his carries.
3. Le'Veon Bell, RB Pittsburgh Steelers
I didn't love that the Steelers took him in the second round -- that was a bit of a reach for me. But I will say that he was very productive last year at Michigan State despite some awful blocking. He has a big opportunity in Pittsburgh because if that line is healthy, I think Bell is the more explosive option in a backfield that also features Jonathan Dwyer. Like Lacy, Bell is also going to become a go-to-guy for short-yardage situations because of his style, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pile up touchdowns on short-yardage carries.
4. Tavon Austin, WR, St. Louis Rams
St. Louis wouldn't have traded up to No. 8 if Austin wasn't going to be used. And the best bet is that Austin slides right into Danny Amendola's vacated slot spot. On the day of the draft, I picked him as my way-too-early Offensive Player of the Year for 2013, and I'll stick with that because I think he can make a unique impact on an offense compared to other players in this draft class.
5. Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati adds an offensive dimension it hasn't had in years -- a pass-catching threat out of the backfield. Bernard was the most versatile RB in the draft, which makes him a perfect fit for a Cincy offense that didn't just want a guy with more explosiveness through the hole, but also a screen and dump-off threat for Andy Dalton, who, while an improved deep passer, will need to maximize underneath stuff to reach his full potential.
6. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
The Texans have been looking for a legit No. 2 WR to take some heat off Andre Johnson for a while, and I think Hopkins fits the bill. The Texans' ability to run the ball and their effectiveness out of play-action should take advantage of Hopkins' ability to create space and stretch the field.
7. Johnathan Franklin, RB, Green Bay Packers
This is a pick more related to opportunity than pure ability. Franklin is a solid, productive back who will deliver if he gets the carries. If Lacy doesn't get the nod as the starter, then Franklin automatically assumes a great deal of value. If there was a running back combination where you could draft one and stash the other, this might be it.
8. Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
There are going to be lots of teams kicking themselves for not grabbing Eifert. I know the Bengals already have Jermaine Gresham, but he has not done the job on intermediate throws. Eifert is the perfect player to fill that void and I can tell you the coaching staff thought the world of him before they drafted him. Look around the league and you've seen that a team consistently playing with two tight ends or living in Ace personnel (2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB) doesn't mean both will be diminished. It can mean just the opposite. Because Eifert is every bit the matchup problem other top tight ends are, I like his chances, and he should be great in the red zone.
9. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The big question with Patterson is whether he can get enough targets. The Vikings offense has failed to produce big fantasy totals out of the wide receiver position -- Percy Harvin is great, but he never eclipsed 1,000 yards or six touchdowns as a wide receiver -- and that starts with their quarterback more than a devotion to Adrian Peterson. But Patterson is great with the ball in his hands, so I don't think the Vikings need to overthink it when it comes to finding ways to get him the ball.
10. Robert Woods, WR, Buffalo Bills
With great hands, solid route-running skills and veteran savvy, Woods is going to surprise people this season. Stevie Johnson is productive but lacks breakaway speed, so don't be shocked if Woods quickly becomes a bigger part of the Bills offense. That said, I don't think you can draft Woods in anything other than a real deep league if Manuel wins the starting job.
